Smart Lock Sales to Approach 26 Million Units by 2023, Strategy Analytics Says

The front door is a front-and-center opportunity for smart home device companies according to a new report by Strategy Analytics . According to the report, “ Smart Home Access Control: Predictions, Players, and Products ”, sales of nearly 26 million units in 2023 will push the smart lock market size past $2.4 billion.

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Kwikset, Schlage, and Yale will control more than 75 percent of this market, but the looming threat of Amazon and Google entering the smart lock arena and consumer dynamics in Europe and Asia will complicate leading vendors’ longer-term initiatives.

“Smart locks are important devices as consumers’ utilization of smart home technology increases,” said Bill Ablondi, Director, Strategy Analytics’ Smart Home Strategies research service. “However, the strategies that have fueled the success of Kwikset, Schlage, Yale, August, and others are providing a template for Amazon and Google to create their own offerings.

Smart lock companies and platform providers are collaborating now, but Amazon or Google will likely become competitors in the near future.”

Additionally, as consumers’ purchases of smart door locks and garage door openers move away from early adopters and approach mass market status, companies competing in this market such as August, Chamberlain, Danalock, Kwikset, Schlage, and Yale must adapt to the changing dynamics of this segment.

Annual unit sales of smart door locks will grow at 19 percent combined annual growth rate (CAGR) over the forecast period, but even as smart door lock shipments climb, lock manufacturers and their partners will need to assess how to overcome obstacles in markets outside the U.S.

A higher percentage of single family homes, and greater interest in smart home automation or security services, make the U.S. the largest market by far. Consumers in other regions have different priorities when it comes to the smart home.

“Western Europe and Asia pose challenges for even the largest smart lock companies,” said Jack Narcotta, Senior Industry Analyst, Strategy Analytics’ Smart Home Strategies research service and author of the report. “In Western Europe, climate control is more important, and smart locks are often not integrated into a smart home service. In South Korea, the smart home solutions installed by SK Telecom, Korea Telecom, or LG U-Plus in multi-dwelling units typically have a shared entry outfitted with a commercial-grade electronic lock system. Smart locks are popular in China, a large and fast-growing smart home market, but indigenous brands such as Alibaba rule.”

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