AI Drives Mainframe Modernization in Europe and Reshapes Strategies in U.S. Public Sector. --ISG

Facing cost pressures, skills shortages and increasing regulation, European enterprises are leveraging service providers to modernize their mainframes and integrate them with cloud platforms to drive AI innovation, according to a new research report published today by Information Services Group (ISG) , a global AI-centered technology research and advisory firm.

The 2025 ISG Provider Lens Mainframe – Services and Solutions report for Europe says the region’s slow or near-stagnant economic growth has made enterprises more cautious about IT investments. Many favor smaller, high-impact modernization projects that demonstrate clear ROI.

Meanwhile, the need for innovation is spurring more companies to invest in upgrading their mainframes and adopting hybrid models that blend the reliability of mainframes with the agility and scalability of the cloud. Companies, in particular, are looking to harness data across platforms for AI and analytics.

Service providers in Europe are responding with novel tools and platforms that enable more incremental, service-based approaches to modernization. Generative AI (GenAI) has become increasingly viable, assisting organizations with code refactoring, documentation and skills transfer.

“Some 28 percent of mainframe clients tell us they lack the in-house skills to be able to modernize their mainframe systems effectively,” said Dr. Matthias Paletta, director and ISG lead for technology modernization in EMEA. “With up to 30 percent of Europe’s IT workforce retiring by 2030, and with universities having already transitioned to teaching cloud-native and web-based development, the talent pool for mainframe positions is shallower than ever before.”

Over the past few months, the use of GenAI in mainframe environments has progressed from niche pilot tests to structured deployments, particularly in industries like banking, insurance and public administration that rely heavily on mainframes, the report says. Providers say GenAI is enabling faster discovery of code dependencies and helping bridge knowledge gaps for younger developers. Yet it still requires domain-specific tuning and subject-matter experts to validate output.

Strict European data protection laws add complexity to mainframe modernization, as organizations must handle code and correlated data carefully to avoid breaching GDPR or sector-specific regulations, the report says.

Expected improvements in the use of GenAI in mainframe modernization include the development of more precise domain-focused models to handle COBOL variants and legacy data structures, integrated compliance features that log and audit AI use, and deeper ties to DevOps pipelines for automated testing. Many providers, the report says, are working on capabilities supporting hybrid cloud architectures, where modern and legacy systems interconnect seamlessly.

“Enterprises’ mainframe teams are shrinking,” said Jan Erik Aase, partner and global leader, ISG Provider Lens Research. “So, more and more, they’re turning to outsourced and managed services to maintain their mission-critical systems. This frees those teams from having to constantly monitor their systems and respond to incidents, so they can focus on innovation.

To learn more, visit: www.isg-one.com